critical analysis of economic journal article topic: energy and economic growth nexus
Criticaly analyze of the document. Analysis should definetly include the following: -explanation of methodology used in the journal- do they make sense? - are the results conclusive and match charts and tables - did the authors leave important facts (e.g. variables) out
Analysis
Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China
Xing-Ping Zhang ⁎, Xiao-Mei Cheng
School of Business & Administration, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 9 March 2009
Received in revised form 19 May 2009
Accepted 19 May 2009
Available online 12 June 2009
Keywords:
Carbon dioxide emission
Economic growth
Energy consumption
Granger causality
Generalized impulse response function
This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy
consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use,
carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960–2007
suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional
Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows
that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of
China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without
impeding economic growth.
© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Global warming has been one of the most important environmental
problems of our ages. The ever increasing amount of carbon
dioxide (CO2), the dominant contributor to the greenhouse effect,
seems to be aggravating this problem. Academics and practitioner
alike have been debating about reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to alleviate global warming.
There seems to be basically three research strands in literature on
the relationship between economic growth and environmental
pollutants. The first strand focuses on the environmental pollutants
and economic growth nexus. It is closely related to testing the validity
of the so-called environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which
postulates an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of
environmental degradation and income growth. That is to say,
environmental degradation increases with per capita income during
the early stages of economic growth, and then declines with per capita
income after arriving at a threshold. Ever since the original empirical
study of Grossman and Krueger (1991), an increasing body of
literature has tested the economic growth and environmental
pollution nexus.1 However, the empirical results appear to be
controversial. The EKC model is severely criticized for lack of feedback
from environmental pollutants to economic output as income is
assumed to be an exogenous variable (see Arrow et al., 1995; Stern,
2004; Hung and Shaw, 2002; among others). Hill and Magnani
(2002), Stern (2004), and Dinda (2004) provided extensive reviews of
this EKC research.
The second strand concentrates on the link between economic
output and energy consumption, since the emissions are mainly
caused by burning fossil fuels. Following the seminal study of Kraft
and Kraft (1978), an increasing number of studies has assessed the
empirical evidence employing Granger causality and cointegration
model. The earlier studies mostly apply a bivariate model and fail to
get consensus results. The bivariate model is criticized in many
econometric issues, especially the omitted variables bias. Stern (1993)
argued that bivariate tests may fail to detect causality because of the
substitution effects that may occur between energy and other inputs.
Employing a multivariate model with energy consumption, gross
domestic product (GDP), capital, and labor force, Stern (1993) found
Granger causality running from energy use to GDP for the USA.
Following Stern (1993), a considerable number of studies2 has tested
the causal relationship between the energy consumption and
economic output in a multivariate context. However, the multivariate
studies also produce conflicting results. Huang et al. (2008) provided a
good review on the empirical results from causality tests.
An assessment of the existing literature indicates that most studies
focus onthe nexus of output-energy or output-pollution.Only recently, a
combined approach of those two methods has emerged which is
implied to investigate the inter-temporal links in the energy–environment–
incomenexus. Appling amultivariatemodelwith income, energy
Ecological Economics 68 (2009) 2706–2712
⁎ Corresponding author. School of Business & Administration, North China Electric
Power University, Beinong Road 2, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China. Tel.: +86
10 80798537.
E-mail address: [email protected] (X.-P. Zhang).
1 See, e.g. de Bruyn and Opschoor (1997), Unruh and Moomaw (1998), Heil and
Selden (1999), Taskin and Zaim (2000), Friedl and Getzner (2003), Coondoo and Dinda
(2008), and Managi and Jena (2008).
2 See, e.g., Masih and Masih (1998);Asafu-Adjaye (2000);Stern (2000);Ghali and El-
Sakka (2004);Oh and Lee (2004); Lee (2005).
0921-8009/$ – see front matter © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.011
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
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