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Do humans exhibit a typical growth curve? Where are we on the growth curve, i.e. how close are we to the K value? Is there anything we can do about it? What are some things we might do now to slow down the advance into the death phase? What were some of the causes of death phase in segments of the human population in the past?
The human population growth, viewed over a long historical timescale (from 10,000 BCE to the present), **exhibits a pattern similar to ** exponential growth (the J-shaped curve). This means the population has been increasing at an accelerating rate.
In population ecology, however, it's generally accepted that no population can grow indefinitely. Eventually, limited resources and environmental constraints will impose resistance, leading to a transition toward the logistic growth curve (the S-shaped curve), which includes a leveling-off phase at the environment's carrying capacity ($\text{K}$).
The human population is currently nearing or potentially overshooting the Earth's long-term carrying capacity ($\text{K}$), though the exact value of $\text{K}$ for humans is highly debated.
Difficult to Define $\text{K}$: Unlike other species, human $\text{K}$ is complicated by technological innovation (which increases resource efficiency and availability) and consumption patterns (which increase per-capita resource demand).
Ecological Footprint: One metric is the Ecological Footprint, which measures the rate at which humans consume resources and generate waste compared to the Earth's ability to regenerate those resources and absorb waste (biocapacity). Current estimates suggest the global footprint is in overshoot—meaning we currently need more than one Earth (around 1.75 Earths) to sustain our current consumption levels indefinitely.
Implication: This overshoot suggests that the global human population is likely above a sustainable $\text{K}$ defined by current consumption and resource management practices.