According to the Police Futurists International, Futures Research is an outgrowth of the Systems Approach and Operations Research, and its principal aim is to facilitate long-range planning. This is accomplished by forecasting from the past supported by mathematical models, cross-disciplinary treatment of subject matter, systematic use of expert judgment, and systems-analytical approach to problems.
Unlike traditional disciplines, Futures Research attempts to deal with social problems in original and novel ways. The three primary goals of Futures Research are to form perceptions of the future (the possible), study likely alternatives (the probable), and make choices to bring about particular events (the preferable).
The principles of Futures Research include (1) the unity or interconnectedness of reality, (2) the crucial importance of time, and (3) the significance of ideas. Futurists do not view the world as a hodgepodge of unconnected entities acting in arbitrary or random fashion, coincidentally interacting without purpose or meaning.
Furthermore, futurists are not preoccupied with immediate concerns although they do not discount them. Futurists tend to focus on time frames of five years and beyond, believing that in most organizations a time lag of three to five years occurs between making a decision and its impact on the organization. Futurists also believe that virtually anything can be changed in society's organizations, given a lead-time of two decades.
Futurists subscribe to six time frames:
• Immediate Present - 2 years
• Short-term 2 - 5 years
• Mid-level 5 - 10 years
• Long-range 10 - 20 years
Sample Answer
That's an excellent summary of the core concepts, goals, and principles of Futures Research as outlined by organizations like Police Futurists International.
The information you provided clearly defines Futures Research as a discipline designed to support long-range planning by systematically exploring potential, probable, and preferable futures.
Here is a breakdown of the key elements presented:
🧭 Core Identity and Methodology
Futures Research is fundamentally an outgrowth of the Systems Approach and Operations Research.
Principal Aim: To facilitate long-range planning.
Methodology: It utilizes a cross-disciplinary treatment of subject matter and a systems-analytical approach to problems.
Supporting Tools: It relies on:
Forecasting from the past supported by mathematical models.
Systematic use of expert judgment.
Primary Goals of Futures Research
Unlike traditional disciplines, it deals with social problems in original and novel ways by focusing on three distinct levels of future possibility:
Form Perceptions of the Future (The Possible): Broadly imagining what could happen.
Study Likely Alternatives (The Probable): Analyzing what is likely to happen based on current trends.
Make Choices to Bring About Particular Events (The Preferable): Determining what should happen and outlining the path to achieve it.
💡 Guiding Principles of Futurists
Futurists adhere to a worldview that emphasizes systemic interconnectedness and long-term impact:
The Unity or Interconnectedness of Reality: They reject the view of the world as random, believing all entities are connected and interact with purpose.
The Crucial Importance of Time: They focus on time frames far beyond immediate concerns, recognizing the lag between decision and impact.