Project Management

  Total points 125. Submit through D2L in Word/Excel format, single or multiple files. Must show your work, answer all parts of the question, and write necessary explanations to earn full points. You have to use Excel to solve this numerical problem (project). Part (A)- 65 points The data below is for 20 periods of sales in $millions. tSales(Y) 110 211 314 414 512 615 718 816 916 1017 1116 1220 1324 1422 1520 1624 1726 1828 1928 2026 21 Plot the time series data. Forecast for the 21st period using simple exponential smoothing with alpha 0.3 and 0.8 and plot the actual 20 period values with forecasted values. Compare the two forecasts using MSE and RMSE. Also calculate the errors and plot the errors for the two forecasts. Comment on the plots (about stationarity). Do you see systematic underestimation? Now perform the forecast using Holt’s two parameter model with alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.6. Plot the Holt’s forecast with actual values. Also calculate the MSE for Holt’s forecast. Is it better than the simple exponential smoothing forecasts? Plot the errors for Holt’s model. Does it look nearly stationary. Part (B)- 60 points For the data below (Production = Y in million tons) plot the data and comment whether you see a seasonal pattern. Perform Holt-Winters’ seasonal forecast using alpha = 0.5, beta = 0.4 and gamma = 0.8. Make forecasts for 2007-q1 and 2007-q2 using Holt-Winters’ model. Calculate the errors and MSE and RMSE. Plot the errors and comment on the plot. Year-q period= t Y 2001-1179 2001-22105 2001-3395 2001-4489 2002-1595 2002-26137 2002-37132 2002-48116 2003-19115 2003-210153 2003-311142 2003-412127 2004-113142 2004-214201 2004-315179 2004-416164 2005-117200 2005-218243 2005-319230 2005-420216 2006-121222 2006-222280 2006-323265 2006-424255 2007-1 2007-2